Many in Wall Street, the media and the government have disagreed on Greenspan publicly providing forecasts on the economy. According to Greenspan, there is 33 % percent of probability that this year the US will go into a recession within the year. Where did he get this from? Which dice did he use to calculate that probability? Probably just a dice with six faces and recession written on two of them. Markets moved and surely Bernanke was not very happy. Bernanke wants transparency. But how can this be done with these interferences. His probability assessment came two weeks ago, but this week he extended his road show and in Boca Raton he extended his comments. Greenspan said that subprime problems will spill over to other sectors. The Dow Jones got a hit but it soon recovered.
Many see these speeches as improper talking. They recommend that Greenspan should act the way Paul Volcker did when he was replaced by Greenspan. Volcker just disappeared from the public. The most interested suggestion on how Greenspan should act comes from Kevin Hassett, an economic journalist. He suggests that Greenspan should set his own blog: