
| |
Marzo 08, 2007 The state of the Hawkometer
In a previous post we defined and explained the hawkometer. This is measure of the monetary policy stance by a Central Bank. Sigma Derivatives an independent news provider, offers on a regular basis a measure of the hawkometer. In their latest report they show that in the European Central Bank (ECB) the tone of hawkishness has increased going from 5.2 in January to 6.5 in February (see picture below). This reveals a general support for the forthcoming 25 point increase this week and for further tightening to go after March. This message is in agreement with the markets. In Europe markets are pricing in almost 100% of a 25bp for this week’s ECB meeting and just below a total of 40 basis points increases by July. The hawk stance in Europe comes from a strong wage bargaining process going on in Europe (mostly in Germany) and the high rate of capacity utilization. No one at the ECB wants an overheated economy and they will do everything needed to prevent it. However very little concerns seem to have built up as a result of the recent stock market turmoil. There does not seem to exist a potential “Trichet put” as the famously used in the US at times of financial distress. The famous “Greenspan put” was a confidence in the market that in the case of a large plunge of the equity market, Greenspan would respond by lowering the cost of borrowing injecting liquidity in the system. This is what happened when LTCM collapsed. Even if the “Trichet put” is not in the mind of European policy makers, be sure that if the European financial market faces a considerable fall in the financial markets that risk its stability, policy makers will react accordingly. Hawkishness can go together with common sense.
Posted on 8 Marzo 2007 in Financial Markets Trackback PingsTrackBack URL for this entry: CommentsPost a comment |
© Instituto de Empresa Business School 2006 | |