
| |
Octubre 21, 2007 The bail-out fund:
Early this month Citigroup , Bank of America, JPMorgan, Chase and several other financial institutions reached an agreement to create a superfund to sort out the mess that exists in the SIVs (Structured Investment Vehicles) market. This superfund, that should just be temporary, would buy qualifying highly-rated assets from certain existing SIVs that choose, at their own judgement, to take advantage of this new source of What are SIVs? Why the need of a bail out fund? The spirit of the fund is to avoid a coordination failure in the market that would induce a fire sale of some assets held by SIVs depressing the value off these assets. There are a few banks that have sponsored several SIVs. These SIVs are seeing problems in their financing side (refinancing their short paper in the ABCP-Asset Backed Commercial Paper- is becoming harder and harder) as well as on their asset value side (the credit squeeze has affected the prices of many of the assets generally held by SIVs). Any of the SIVs has an incentive to liquidate the funds, now that they can, and avoid further losses if things deteriorate further. If all the funds have the same idea, there will be a fire sale that will overflow the market with the assets held by SIVs, pushing their prices lower and lower, up to unprecedented levels. So everyone (all SIVs) is better off if there is a coordinating effort from the side of banks sponsoring SIVs. Critics to the funds. Can it really work?
Posted on 21 Octubre 2007 in Financial Markets Trackback PingsTrackBack URL for this entry: CommentsI am no economist; however, I do have powers of observation. Over 40 years since my graduation from high school, I have been through numerous cycles of this economy. I have observed during those cyclical economic changes of the past 40 years that the first industry to go into the tank is construction (residential) and that same industry is the first industry to emerge from the tank. While construction is not the single most significant element of our complex hybrid form of free enterprise economy there is, however; an almost one to one relationship between the cycles of the residential construction industry and the cycles of the overall economy. I am, therefore; from my vantage point as a member of this industry, convinced that any final version of a bail out of the banking industry will not avoid an economic downward slide of major proportions. It will, however; enable the providers of the economies capital to preserve and relocate there assets to more favorable investments; probably far a field of mortgage banking in the United States of America. Before residential construction can reemerge, its excess inventory burn off will have to happen. This burn off would have to take place slowly in a tight money, lack of funds for lending environment due to the exodus of investment capital. This personal economic forecast has me considering getting a teaching certificate and making a career change. If I am lucky this change may enable me to remain employed during the coming crunch. If not I will do what ever I can to survive like every other worker. At this point, I have to ask where the money will come from that the U.S. Government uses to purchase these securities and thereby liquidate the assets of the economies capital investors. Will that capital remain in this country? Will the “rank and file” be left with worthless currency and over bearing national debt while other countries workers reap the benefit of this bailout? In such a short frame of time, can the Congress know the net effects to the economy caused by this bail out? The tax rebate recently made by the U.S. Government caused a spike to the economy. Knowing this move had positive affect; then would it not make more “cents” to study how increasing the amount of a rebate, discounted for income taxes, would reenergize all sectors of the economy? Cc: Posted by: Charles Bayham at Septiembre 29, 2008 04:33 AM Post a comment |
© Instituto de Empresa Business School 2006 | |