Archivo de la Categoría ‘Uncategorized’

31
Ago

Doomsters

Escrito el 31 agosto 2007 por Juan Toro en Uncategorized

Doomsters abound and are able to see black when it is white. But it is also true that events repeat themselves, not exactly but very similarly in time . I just saw this in

8
Jun

Sandisk,

Escrito el 8 junio 2007 por Héctor Rico Pérez en Uncategorized

Manuel nos comenta alguno de los riesgos que supone invertir en una empresa como Sandisk.

“Lo que si puedo comentar es que Sandisk se ha visto en un negocio de feroz competencia. Como la mayoria de este tipo de productos, han pasado de ser productos de altos margenes a productos commodity, donde la calidad es algo que se presupone, y los costes pasan a definir si se hace la compra o no.”

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7
May

Real state prices in Spain and bad decision making

Escrito el 7 mayo 2007 por Juan Toro en Uncategorized

John Authers a journalist from the FT described the Spanish consumers as bad decision makers in terms of their real state buying decisions. He grounded his appreciations on arguments from behavioural finance widely discussed by Robert Shiller in his book Irrational Exuberance. Though Irrational Exuberance dealt with the dot com boom instead of the real state boom, the same principles apply. According to Shiller, traditionally the trend on housing prices has moved closely with that of rents, as any asset pricing valuation model would predict. But in the last years they have been diverging widely. Prices have increased by 182 % and rents have barely moved. This movement has been exacerbated in countries like Spain. Shiller summarizes the principles of behavioural finance that has led many to buy a house without much looking at any valuation model or economic reasoning as follows. First, homebuyers are affected by wishful thinking; they all believe their house is a winner. Second, the human brain filters and processes ideas in terms of stories rather that documented facts. Stories from relatives of friends blur our thinking on the value of housing. Last, money illusion. People only report their buying and selling prices. Transactions costs- notaries, taxes

30
Abr

Exchange rates are in turmoil. This week there are some historical highs and next week we might see others (probably on the same currencies). The Dollar is at historical lows relative to the Euro and the pound. You get now 1,36 dollars per Euro and 2 Dollars per each sterling you have in your pocket.

This turmoil seems that is better explained by a US dollar problem: low growth and high external deficits in the US. Moreover and related with these arguments there is an expected reversal of the returns on each currency. The monetary/interest rate cycle is expected to reverse, with the Fed probably lowering rates (despite the stubborn and firm resolution of the Fed against this market view) and the UK and Euroland going towards further hikes. In the UK higher than expected inflation is motivating higher rates. Whereas in Europe

19
Abr

When inflation forces you to write letters:

Escrito el 19 abril 2007 por Juan Toro en Uncategorized

The UK economy is heating up with effects on foreseeable interest rates increases and exchange rates. May be this could be a lesson for others. The reference inflation figure has overshot the target set by the Bank of England (BoE) and the pound is now trading well above 2 dollars. As a journalist reports:

9
Mar

Cash is king

Escrito el 9 marzo 2007 por Manuel Gutiérrez de Diego en Uncategorized

En nuestra Comunidad de Finanzas vuelve a aparecer un tema que nunca dejar

30
Ene

The sudden drop in oil prices is worrying policy maker to the extent that some economist show the equivalence between the sharp drop in oil prices and the effect of a rate cut (whether it is Eonia or Fed Fund). Merril Lynch & co belives this recent drop in oil prices is equivalent to three rate cuts (of 25 basis points each) by the Federal Reserve. This seems a bit of an exaggeration. Some other economists were doing similar studies at the end of last year comparing the dollar depreciation with a given cut in rates. No doubts that this large price movements (either oil, exchange rates, or housing prices) have consequences when Central Banks set rates and it changes the scenario within which policy makers revise any upward/downward decision on rates. May be the hardest thing is always to distinguish between shot term and long term asset price movements that might need correction. This has puzzled Central Banks in the last ten years quite a bit. It did with the dot com bubble and it has done recently with the surge in real state prices.

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24
Ene

Petrodollars, where are they going?

Escrito el 24 enero 2007 por Juan Toro en Uncategorized

The rise in oil prices during the last four years has led to important income transfers from oil consuming countries to oil producing countries. Oil prices have gone from 20 $ up to 60 $ a barrel in this period generating important current account surpluses in oil producing countries. These important income transfers have consequences in terms of financial flows, asset allocation and worldwide asset prices.

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12
Ene

¿Las pymes son más conservadoras a la hora de endeudarse?

Escrito el 12 enero 2007 por Manuel Gutiérrez de Diego en Uncategorized

¿Son las pymes más conservadoras a la hora de recurrir a la deuda como fuente de financiación de sus proyectos? Y si es así, ¿por qué razón? La teoría nos dice que las empresas poseen una estructura óptima de financiación, donde la deuda debe representar un recurso importante para el crecimiento del negocio, que además posee ciertas ventajas fiscales derivadas del hecho de que al incurrir en deuda para financiar nuevas inversiones, las empresas ven reducidos los beneficios sobre los cuales deben tributar.

8
Ene

¿Son las recompras de acciones verdaderas?

Escrito el 8 enero 2007 por Manuel Gutiérrez de Diego en Uncategorized

Con este sugerente título, Ignacio de la Torre, miembro de nuestra Comunidad de Finanzas, profesor del Instituto de Empresa y también Executive Director (Equity Sales) en UBS, ha puesto sobre nuestra mesa virtual un tema de análisis que debe ser de obligado interés para cualquier gestor de fondos. Y es que a veces, citando a Ignacio “tendemos a creernos que las recompras de acciones en realidad ocurren, y computamos su efecto en el WACC y en la creación eventual de valor sin ni siquiera asegurarnos si son en realidad recompras de acciones a los accionistas”.

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